Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of newborns’ morbidity and mortality in Ukraine by 2026
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15574/SP.2024.139.37Keywords:
forecasting, morbidity, mortality rate, newborns, perinatal careAbstract
The aim is to produce the model of the Ukrainian newborns’ morbidity and mortality dynamics by 2026.
Materials and methods. Statistical data from Ukrainian healthcare institutions that provided perinatal care during the period from 2012 to 2022 were analyzed, based on Form 21 'Report on Medical Assistance to Pregnant Women, Women in Labor, and Postpartum Women for the Year 20__'. For mathematical modeling, the authors applied univariate regression models, and assessed the quality of the models using the Pearson correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination R². The differences were considered statistically significant at p<0.05. The authors used MedCalc® Statistical Software version 22.009 for data treatment.
Results. By 2026, the authors forecast that in Ukraine the proportion of newborns who are born sick or become ill will increase to 27.01% (p<0.001). From 2012 to 2022, the morbidity rate per 1,000 newborns increased from 188.67 in 2012 to 392.76 in 2022 (p<0.001). Particularly rapid growth was identified during the period from 2021 to 2022. In 2026, further increase in this indicator is forecasted under a polynomial regression model scenario to 763.98 per 1,000 newborns, and under a linear scenario to 551.20 per 1,000 newborns (p<0.001). From 2012 to 2022, there was a decrease in the mortality rate of newborns who were born sick or became ill. In 2012, 2 out of every 100 such newborns died, while in 2022, the figure was one child. By 2026, a further decrease in the mortality rate of newborns for specific diagnoses is forecasted.
Conclusions. By 2026, an increase in the incidence of newborn diseases due to poor management of pregnancy and childbirth is predicted, along with a decrease in mortality among sick newborns, due to the high-tech neonatal care in perinatal centers. To reduce the incidence of newborn diseases, it is necessary to develop an effective strategy for improving perinatal care, aimed at enhancing the quality of pregnancy and childbirth management, and strengthening neonatal care in the context of increasing morbidity.
The research was carried out in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Declaration. The study protocol was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the clinical base. The informed consent of the patient was obtained for conducting the studies.
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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