Analysis of Lyme borreliosis incidence during the COVID-19 epidemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15574/SP.2023.134.112Keywords:
Lyme borreliosis, mathematical forecast, COVID-19, children, adultsAbstract
The global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has created unprecedented health, social and economic challenges, and has led to a sharp decline in official statistical reporting of many infectious diseases, including Lyme borreliosis (LB), especially in children, due to COVID-19-related health, anti-epidemic and quarantine measures.
Purpose - to assess the completeness of statistical accounting of LB in children against the background of the COVID-19 situation in the context of the epidemic in the Ternopil region of Ukraine that began in the spring of 2020.
Materials and methods. A PubMed search was conducted for analytical articles on LB and COVID-19 for the period from 2020 to February 2023. Epidemiological analysis and forecasting were performed using statistical methods.
The search included 300 publications. After the selection process, 25 publications were included in the review. The results of long-term epidemiologic surveillance of tick-borne infectious diseases in the Ternopil region, including data from official statistics, epidemiologic investigations, and laboratory studies, were analyzed. To predict the incidence of LB in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, over 17 years and all age groups, increasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1 were used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, an increasing linear trend with an approximation coefficient equal to 0.8 was used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age groups 18-29 years, 30-49 years, 50-65 years, over 65 years and all age groups, we used decreasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1. The vast majority of the highest values of the approximation coefficients confirm the high accuracy of predicting the incidence of VL and COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 in the Ternopil region.
Results and conclusions. The officially registered number of cases of pulmonary disease, including among children, during the COVID-19 epidemic in Ternopil region is likely incomplete and does not reflect the actual incidence rate. This is due to the problem of identifying patients with pulmonary disease during the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in reported cases of LB in 2020 compared to previous years, in 2021-2023, there was an improvement in its detection and diagnosis, but at levels lower than before the COVID-19 epidemic. However, the proportion of children is decreasing.
No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.
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